Yesterday, the World Meteorological Organization (“WMO”) released the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, with predictions that the temperature will likely exceed 1.5o C between 2023 and 2027, for at least 1 year. During this period there is a 98% likelihood that the warmest year on record, 2016, will be exceeded. The report highlights that as global temperatures approach the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5o C, temporary increases will become more frequent. The temperature rises are driven by an El Nino event expected to start between December 2023-February 2024, and this together with climate change as explained by the WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas, will have impacts on food security, health, water and the environment.
Rainfall patterns
Indonesia, the Amazon, central America and Australia are predicted to experience reduced rainfall while above average rainfall is expected in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia.
La Nina and El Nino
According to the WMO, the cooling effect of La Nina experienced over the past 3 years ended in March 2023. The warming effect of El Nino sees temperature increases in the year after it develops, which would be 2024. The Met Office explains that an El Nino is the warming of sea surface temperature in the central-east equatorial Pacific, while La Nina is when cooler than average sea surface temperature is recorded.
Early Warnings for All Initiative
The WMO highlights that the report has been published ahead of the World Meteorological Congress which will include discussions on the Early Warnings for All Initiative. According to the WMO, this is an initiative to ensure that by 2027 everyone is protected by an early warning system, as a form of climate adaptation. According to the WMO, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has written to an initial group of countries that would receive targeted support including but not limited to, Cambodia, Maldives, Nepal, Madagascar, Mauritius and Mozambique, and the full list will be expanded in the future. It is a recognition that the effects of climate change are increasingly becoming more pronounced, and this will impact global emergency responses.
The report can be accessed on the WMO website here and the press release can be accessed here.
The press release on the Early Warnings for All Initiative can be accessed here.
Sustainable Capabilities 